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Modeling financial time series with S-PLUS (Zivot & Wang)

Book reviews November 23, 2009 Link

Modeling financial time series / Zivot

A well organized reference book with both a theory refresher and code examples for each topic: univariate and multivariate regressions, GARCH, cointegration, state space models and much more. This is a practical book  for that may be also be used with R, the open-source alternative to S-PLUS. A solid background in statistics is recommended.

Shorting leveraged ETFs pairs

Research November 22, 2009 Link

Research on leveraged ETFs has explained some important characteristics of these products:

  • their negative exposure to volatility
  • the resulting possible value erosion for long term buyers

However, the research also shows that the value erosion is not systematic. Shorting leveraged ETFs by pairs does not necessarily produce a positive return. In trending markets with low volatility, the power of compounded returns dominates the effect of value erosion (click on image to access calculator).